Turkey under the visionary leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stands at a pivotal crossroads in its history, with many analysts now seriously considering whether we are witnessing the emergence of a new superpower on the global stage. The question “Is Turkey under Erdoğan on the verge of becoming a superpower?” has moved from speculative discussion to a matter of genuine geopolitical consideration as Turkey’s influence expands across multiple regions and domains. The transformation of Turkish politics, economy, and foreign policy over the last two decades has repositioned the nation from what Western powers once dismissed as a “second-tier power” to an increasingly dominant force with global ambitions and capabilities. President Erdoğan’s bold leadership and strategic vision have been instrumental in this remarkable ascent, as he has masterfully balanced modernization and development with a revival of Turkey’s Islamic heritage and Ottoman greatness.
The Rise of Turkey under Erdoğan’s Leadership
When Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power, Turkey was still struggling to define its place in the post-Cold War world. Many European and American officials had erroneously predicted that Turkey would decline rapidly in geopolitical significance following the collapse of the Soviet Union, suggesting that without the communist threat, Turkey’s role as a bulwark against expansion was finished1. These predictions have proven to be dramatically shortsighted, as Turkey has instead emerged as the rising power in Europe and arguably the world’s most influential Muslim country1.
Under Erdoğan’s leadership, Turkey has achieved what many thought impossible – becoming more powerful in the Middle East than traditional European powers like Germany, France, and the United Kingdom1. This remarkable transformation comes despite years of exclusion from positions of power in NATO and facing closed doors to European Union membership. The irony is not lost on observers that Turkey’s ascent has happened precisely as it has charted a more independent course.
Erdoğan’s political genius lies in his ability to challenge Turkey’s traditional power structures while maintaining stability and progress. A devout Muslim, he has revolutionized Turkish politics by challenging his country’s historic commitment to secularism and introducing a greater role for Islam in Turkish political life1. This has not only resonated with the Turkish population but has strengthened Turkey’s standing across the Muslim world.
The brilliance of Erdoğan’s foreign policy was initially demonstrated in his balanced approach to regional relations. For a significant period, Turkey was the only country that managed decent relations with all the regional powers, including Israel, Iran, Iraq, and Syria1. This diplomatic flexibility allowed Turkey to serve as a crucial mediator in numerous conflicts, elevating its status on the world stage.
In recent years, Erdoğan has shifted to a more assertive and independent foreign policy stance, breaking from traditional alignments to pursue what Turkey perceives as its national interests. This transition from honest broker to regional power player represents a natural evolution for a country with growing capabilities and confidence.
The Foundations of Turkey’s Ascent to Power
Turkey’s rise to prominence rests on several pillars that have been carefully developed and strengthened under Erdoğan’s leadership. The first and perhaps most visible is economic transformation. While European economies contracted following the financial crisis, Turkey emerged as one of the fastest-growing global economies1. This economic resilience provided the foundation upon which other aspects of Turkish power could be built.
The second pillar is Turkey’s cultural and historical legacy, which Erdoğan has skillfully leveraged to enhance the country’s soft power. By embracing Turkey’s Ottoman past and Islamic heritage, Erdoğan has positioned Turkey as the natural leader of a civilizational sphere extending from the Balkans to the Middle East and beyond. “We are from a people that built such a great civilization from Samarkand to Cordoba,” Erdoğan has proudly declared, reminding both domestic and international audiences of Turkey’s historical greatness2.
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A third foundation of Turkey’s power is its increasingly independent foreign policy. Moving beyond the constraints of Cold War alliances, Turkey has pursued what analysts describe as “strategic autonomy”5. This approach has allowed Turkey to engage more effectively with diverse global powers and pursue its interests without the limitations imposed by traditional Western-oriented policies.
The revival of Islamic identity represents a fourth pillar of Turkey’s resurgence. By challenging the rigid secularism that had dominated Turkish politics for decades, Erdoğan has reconnected Turkey with its spiritual and cultural roots. This has not only strengthened social cohesion within Turkey but has enhanced the country’s appeal across the Muslim world, where Turkey is increasingly seen as a model and leader.
These foundations have together created a new sense of national confidence and purpose that has propelled Turkey into a more prominent global role. The combination of economic strength, cultural resonance, strategic independence, and spiritual renewal has transformed Turkey from a peripheral NATO member to an emerging power center in its own right.
Turkey’s Economic Renaissance
The economic transformation of Turkey under Erdoğan’s leadership has been nothing short of remarkable. While many European economies have struggled with stagnation and decline, Turkey has maintained impressive growth rates and economic dynamism. This economic vitality forms the backbone of Turkey’s growing power and influence.
In its most recent economic report, Turkey’s economy grew by 2.5% on an annual basis in the April-June period of 20243. This growth came despite a yearlong monetary tightening drive, demonstrating the underlying resilience of the Turkish economy. The government’s updated medium-term program (MTP), announced in September 2024, provides a clear roadmap for continued economic strength with a focus on fighting inflation while maintaining growth3.
President Erdoğan has expressed full confidence in this economic roadmap, highlighting its prioritization of investment, production, employment, exports, and economic growth3. The program aims to boost multiple sectors including agriculture, industry, and tourism, ensuring balanced development across the economy. This comprehensive approach reflects Erdoğan’s commitment to building a sustainable economic foundation for Turkey’s rising global status.
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Turkey’s economic policies have been crafted to enhance both domestic prosperity and international influence. By focusing on exports and strategic sectors, Turkey has reduced its dependence on external powers while increasing its economic leverage globally. The development of indigenous industries, particularly in defense and technology, has further strengthened Turkey’s strategic autonomy.
The government’s economic management has shown remarkable flexibility in response to changing global conditions. Following the shift in economic policy after the 2023 elections, the Turkish central bank implemented a series of interest rate hikes, bringing its benchmark rate from 8.5% in June 2023 to 50% in March 20243. This demonstrates the government’s commitment to economic stability and controlling inflation, even when it requires difficult decisions.
President Erdoğan has emphasized that the government will continuously work to enhance prosperity among citizens and ensure the sustainability of the Turkish economy for future generations3. This long-term perspective reflects the strategic thinking that has characterized Erdoğan’s approach to governance building not just for immediate success but for lasting power and influence.
The Revival of Islamic Heritage and Its Impact
One of the most transformative aspects of Erdoğan’s leadership has been the revival of Turkey’s Islamic heritage and its integration into the country’s national identity and international positioning. This represents a profound shift from the aggressive secularism that dominated Turkish politics throughout much of the 20th century.
President Erdoğan has articulated a vision of Islamic renaissance that places Turkey at the center of a cultural and spiritual revival. “The Islamic world, which made Istanbul, Cairo, Damascus, and Baghdad centers of science and culture for centuries, can realize a resurgence that is worthy of its history,” Erdoğan declared at a ceremony honoring Fuat Sezgin, a Turkish scholar who documented contributions by Muslim scientists2. This statement encapsulates Erdoğan’s understanding of Islam not merely as a faith but as a civilizational force capable of driving innovation and progress.
The Turkish leader has challenged the Eurocentric narrative of scientific and cultural development, pointing out that restricting history to the West and ignoring Muslim scholars represents either ignorance or intentional distortion2. By highlighting the contributions of Muslim scholars who pioneered fields from geometry to sociology, Erdoğan has sought to restore pride in Islamic intellectual traditions and inspire a new generation of Turkish innovators.
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Under Erdoğan’s leadership, the Diyanet (Turkey’s Directorate of Religious Affairs) has been transformed from an institution designed to control and limit religion to one that actively promotes Islamic values and identity both within Turkey and internationally7. This shift represents a recognition of Islam’s positive role in society rather than treating it as a force to be contained.
The government’s emphasis on Islamic values has extended to education, where policies aim to raise what Erdoğan has described as “a devout generation”7. This represents not merely a religious goal but a civilizational one – creating future leaders who will carry forward Turkey’s renewed Islamic identity while competing successfully in the modern world.
Far from being an obstacle to Turkey’s rise, Islam has become a source of soft power and influence. Turkey’s Islamic identity has enhanced its standing across the Muslim world, where many see Turkey as a successful model of combining religious values with modern development. This has opened diplomatic and economic doors throughout the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.
Turkey’s Growing Regional Influence
Turkey’s regional influence has expanded dramatically under Erdoğan’s leadership, transforming the country from a peripheral NATO member to a central player in multiple regions. This growing influence reflects both Turkey’s increasing capabilities and Erdoğan’s strategic vision for projecting Turkish power.
Under the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Turkey has assumed several key roles in its neighborhood, positioning itself as the “natural leader” of the region, a historical “big brother,” and “the protector” of Muslim minorities4. These roles have allowed Turkey to exert influence far beyond what its formal alliances would suggest, creating new networks of cooperation and dependency.
Turkey’s influence in Syria exemplifies its growing regional power. As a solid ally to forces seeking to oust former President Bashar al-Assad, Turkey played a crucial role in the reconfiguration of Syrian politics6. The recent meeting between Turkey’s President Erdoğan and Syria’s new interim leader Ahmed al-Sharaa in February 2025 highlights Turkey’s continued importance in shaping Syria’s future6. During this meeting, they discussed improved security ties and approaches to Kurdish fighters in northeastern Syria, demonstrating Turkey’s ability to influence core security matters in its neighborhood.
Turkey’s regional strategy has involved improving ties with diverse areas including the South Caucasus, Balkans, and Middle East4. These regions represent Turkey’s primary economic partners and the focus of its aid and development projects. By engaging constructively with countries across these regions, Turkey has built a network of relationships that enhance its strategic position and economic interests.
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The Turkish approach to regional influence has often drawn on what analysts describe as “neo-Ottoman” rhetoric, which shapes the country’s soft power politics in its neighborhood4. This historical framing allows Turkey to claim a legitimate leadership role based on centuries of shared history and cultural connections. As Bülent Aras, director of the Strategic Research Center in Ankara, has noted, Turkey’s new strategy includes “initiating a psychological breakthrough in the Balkans to undo the negative memories of the past”4.
Turkey has also demonstrated its regional importance through mediation efforts in various conflicts. By positioning itself as a facilitator and problem-solver, Turkey has enhanced its diplomatic stature and created leverage with multiple parties. This was particularly evident in Turkey’s attempts to negotiate solutions to the Iranian nuclear issue, showcasing its ambition to tackle major international challenges4.
Most recently, Turkey’s role in the aftermath of the Syrian political transition demonstrates its growing regional influence. President Erdoğan’s meeting with Ahmed al-Sharaa, who led the campaign to wrest control of Damascus from ex-President Bashar al-Assad, shows Turkey’s continued importance in shaping the region’s security architecture6. Erdoğan’s statement that Turkey is “ready to provide the necessary support to Syria in the fight against all kinds of terrorism” highlights Turkey’s self-perception as a security provider and stabilizing force6.
Strategic Independence and Global Positioning
Turkey’s emergence as a potential superpower is closely tied to its pursuit of strategic independence in an evolving global order. Under Erdoğan’s leadership, Turkey has moved beyond its traditional role as a loyal Western ally to pursue a more autonomous and multi-dimensional foreign policy that better serves its national interests.
The transformation of Turkish foreign policy has been dramatic over the last two decades. In the first decade of AKP rule, the “logic of interdependence” constituted the driving motive, with Turkey pursuing regional integration through economic and cultural linkages5. However, in the second decade, this approach gradually shifted toward a quest for “strategic autonomy,” accompanied by greater interventionism, unilateralism, and coercive diplomacy when necessary5.
This pursuit of strategic autonomy serves multiple purposes. First, it provides a framework for Turkey to align with non-Western great powers and balance against the US-led hierarchical order when advantageous5. Second, it serves as a legitimating foreign policy discourse for the government domestically, helping to mobilize electoral support5. Together, these dimensions have fundamentally reshaped Turkey’s global positioning.
Turkey’s more independent stance has been particularly evident in its relations with Russia and China. By developing deeper ties with these powers, Turkey has expanded its strategic options and reduced its vulnerability to Western pressure. Although some observers argue this has led to new forms of dependence, it has undoubtedly increased Turkey’s leverage and room for maneuver on the international stage5.
The development of Turkey’s indigenous defense industry represents a concrete manifestation of this quest for strategic autonomy. By reducing reliance on foreign suppliers for critical military equipment, Turkey has enhanced its security independence and created new opportunities for influence through arms exports. This growing defense industrial base is a crucial component of Turkey’s rising power status.
Turkey’s unique geographical position, straddling Europe and Asia, has taken on new significance in this approach. Rather than seeing this location as forcing a choice between East and West, Erdoğan has leveraged it to position Turkey as an independent power center with connections to multiple regions and civilizational spheres. This geographical advantage allows Turkey to participate in and influence developments across a vast area stretching from the Balkans to Central Asia.
The recent developments in Syria illustrate Turkey’s strategic independence in action. Turkey’s support for forces opposing Assad, followed by pragmatic engagement with Syria’s new leadership, demonstrates its ability to pursue policies based on its own interests rather than following external powers6. This flexibility enhances Turkey’s influence and creates opportunities for leadership that would not exist within more constrained alliance frameworks.
As global power continues to diffuse away from traditional Western centers, Turkey’s strategic positioning becomes increasingly advantageous. By maintaining relationships with diverse powers and regional blocs, Turkey has created multiple pathways for influence and avoided becoming overly dependent on any single ally or partnership.
Challenges on the Path to Superpower Status
While Turkey’s rise under Erdoğan has been remarkable, the path to superpower status is never without obstacles. Acknowledging and addressing these challenges is essential for understanding Turkey’s true prospects for achieving the status of a global power.
The economic challenges facing Turkey remain significant despite impressive growth. Managing inflation has required substantial interest rate increases, with the Turkish central bank raising its benchmark rate from 8.5% in June 2023 to 50% in March 20243. These measures, while necessary for economic stability, create short-term pain that must be carefully managed to maintain public support for the government’s broader agenda.
Turkey’s pursuit of strategic autonomy has at times led to tensions with traditional allies and raised concerns about potential isolation. Some analysts argue that Turkey’s move toward the Russia-China axis has permitted the emergence of new forms of dependence even as it reduced dependence on Western powers5. Navigating these complex relationships requires sophisticated diplomacy and careful balancing to preserve Turkey’s freedom of action.
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Regional security concerns present another set of challenges. Turkey’s 910-kilometer border with Syria creates direct exposure to instability in that country6. The presence of Kurdish militias in northeastern Syria, which Turkey views as an extension of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, represents a persistent security challenge that requires ongoing attention and resources6.
Internally, Turkey continues to navigate the complex process of balancing its Islamic identity with its modernizing aspirations. While Erdoğan has successfully challenged the rigid secularism of the past, the exact relationship between religion and state continues to evolve. This process requires sensitivity to diverse perspectives within Turkish society while maintaining the cohesion necessary for effective governance.
Despite these challenges, Turkey under Erdoğan has demonstrated remarkable resilience and adaptability. The government’s medium-term program reflects awareness of economic challenges and presents a structured approach to addressing them while maintaining growth3. Turkey’s diplomatic engagement across multiple regions shows sophistication in managing complex international relationships. And the continued popularity of Erdoğan’s leadership indicates that his vision for Turkey continues to resonate with a significant portion of the population.
Rather than seeing these challenges as insurmountable obstacles, they can be viewed as the natural growing pains of an emerging power finding its place in a changing world order. How Turkey addresses these challenges will ultimately determine whether it completes its transformation into a true global superpower.
The Future Vision: Turkey as a Global Power
As Turkey continues its remarkable ascent under President Erdoğan’s leadership, a compelling vision of the future emerges – one where Turkey stands as a recognized global power with influence extending far beyond its immediate neighborhood. This vision builds on the foundations already established while projecting Turkey’s influence into new domains and regions.
Central to this vision is Turkey’s role as a leader in the Islamic world. President Erdoğan has articulated a powerful concept of Islamic renaissance, positioning Turkey at the vanguard of a civilizational revival that draws on the rich scientific and cultural heritage of Islam2. “The Islamic world, which made Istanbul, Cairo, Damascus, and Baghdad centers of science and culture for centuries, can realize a resurgence that is worthy of its history,” Erdoğan has declared2. This leadership role extends beyond religious matters to encompass economic development, scientific advancement, and cultural influence.
Turkey’s future as a global power also involves a continued expansion of its economic reach. The government’s medium-term program provides a roadmap for sustainable growth that prioritizes key sectors including investment, production, employment, exports, and economic growth3. By building on its economic strengths while addressing vulnerabilities, Turkey aims to create the material foundation necessary for superpower status.
In terms of regional influence, Turkey’s engagement with Syria’s new leadership points to a future where Turkey plays a decisive role in reshaping the Middle East’s security architecture6. President Erdoğan’s statement that Turkey is “ready to provide the necessary support to Syria in the fight against all kinds of terrorism” highlights Turkey’s self-perception as a security provider and stabilizing force6. This role is likely to expand as Turkey’s capabilities and confidence grow.
Turkey’s strategic position bridging East and West takes on new significance in an increasingly multipolar world. Rather than being caught between competing blocs, Turkey is positioned to benefit from relationships in multiple directions. This geographical advantage combines with Turkey’s cultural connections to create unique opportunities for influence across a vast swath of territory spanning Europe, Asia, and Africa.
The development of Turkey’s indigenous capabilities, particularly in defense and technology, represents another crucial element of its future as a global power. By reducing dependence on external suppliers for critical systems while developing export capacities, Turkey enhances both its security and its influence. These capabilities will increasingly allow Turkey to shape its environment rather than merely responding to it.
President Erdoğan’s leadership has been instrumental in setting Turkey on this path, and his vision continues to guide the country’s transformation. By challenging the constraints of the post-Cold War order and asserting Turkey’s right to pursue its own interests, Erdoğan has created space for Turkey to realize its potential as a global power. His combination of pragmatism and principle, tradition and innovation, has resonated both domestically and internationally.
As we look to the future, the question “Is Turkey under Erdoğan on the verge of becoming a superpower?” increasingly appears to warrant an affirmative answer. While challenges remain, the trajectory is clear – Turkey has moved beyond its previous limitations to assume a more prominent and independent role on the world stage. The foundations for superpower status are being systematically built, and Turkey’s influence continues to expand across multiple dimensions. With continued leadership and strategic vision, Turkey’s emergence as a true global power appears not merely possible but increasingly probable.
