Since its founding in 1945, the United Nations (UN) has played a central role in maintaining international peace and security, fostering global cooperation, and addressing worldwide challenges. However, increasing geopolitical tensions, evolving alliances, and intensified great power rivalries now test the UN’s effectiveness. Key conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and prolonged Middle East instability, alongside the potential return of the Trump administration, raise pressing questions about the organization’s ability to adapt and assert its influence in an increasingly polarized world.
The UN in a World of Multiplying Conflicts
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has highlighted the multiplying and increasingly deadly nature of current conflicts, further exacerbated by deepening geopolitical divisions and mistrust1. The nuclear threat is at its highest in decades, adding another layer of complexity to an already precarious situation1. The UN’s ability to address these challenges is hampered by several factors, including the Security Council’s veto power, which allows permanent members to block resolutions, and the increasing disregard for international law and norms by some states.
The war in Ukraine, now approaching its fourth year, has exposed the limitations of the UN in preventing and resolving conflicts between major powers1. The Security Council has been paralyzed by Russia’s veto, preventing effective action to halt the aggression and ensure accountability. The UN has been more successful in providing humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and supporting efforts to investigate war crimes, but its overall impact on the conflict has been limited.
In the Middle East, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to rage, with devastating consequences for civilians1. The UN has repeatedly called for a ceasefire and a peaceful resolution to the conflict, but its efforts have been stymied by the lack of political will among the parties involved and the divisions within the international community. The UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) has been particularly affected, facing funding cuts and accusations of bias.
Beyond these high-profile conflicts, the UN is also grappling with crises in Sudan, the Sahel, Haiti and other regions1. These conflicts are often driven by a complex interplay of factors, including political instability, economic inequality, climate change, and violent extremism. The UN’s ability to respond effectively is constrained by limited resources, lack of access, and the difficulty of achieving consensus among member states.
Repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine War
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has had profound repercussions for the international system, the world order, and global geopolitics2. It has triggered a complex struggle between Russia, the United States, and Europe, with the US striving to consolidate its global alliance system2. The conflict has also led to a rise in energy prices and a food crisis, particularly affecting the Middle East24.
The war has also exposed the limitations of international cooperation and the rise of nationalism and protectionism5. Businesses remain interested in cross-border economic engagement, but the anti-globalization movement poses a threat to economic growth and international relations5. Cyberattacks are becoming more frequent and severe, representing a new frontier in global conflict5.
The conflict has also had a significant impact on the Middle East, with countries in the region taking a relatively neutral position and not joining US sanctions against Russia2. This reflects their strategic autonomy and the declining influence of traditional powers in the region2. Russia’s influence in the Middle East has been limited and weakened by the conflict2.
The UN and the Middle East
The Middle East is facing multiple challenges, including the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the war in Yemen, and the political crisis in Lebanon. These conflicts are often intertwined and fueled by regional rivalries, sectarianism, and the rise of non-state actors. The UN has been actively involved in the Middle East, providing humanitarian assistance, mediating peace negotiations, and supporting political transitions. However, its efforts have been hampered by the complexity of the conflicts and the lack of consensus among regional and international actors.
The UN’s role in the Middle East is further complicated by the involvement of external powers, such as the United States, Russia, and China. These powers have different interests and priorities in the region, and their actions can either exacerbate or mitigate conflicts. The UN needs to find ways to engage with these powers and promote a more coordinated and coherent approach to the Middle East.
The Potential Impact of a Trump Administration
The potential return of a Trump administration in the United States could have significant implications for the UN and the multilateral system. During his first term, President Trump pursued an “America First” policy, which led to the withdrawal of the United States from several international agreements and organizations, including the Paris Agreement on climate change and the World Health Organization. He also questioned the value of alliances such as NATO and imposed tariffs on goods from China and other countries.
A second Trump administration could further weaken the UN and undermine international cooperation. Trump has expressed skepticism about the UN’s effectiveness and has threatened to cut US funding. He could also take a more confrontational approach to China and other rivals, potentially leading to increased geopolitical tensions.
However, it is also possible that a second Trump administration could adopt a more pragmatic approach to foreign policy. Trump has shown a willingness to negotiate with adversaries and has sometimes defied expectations. He could also see the value of working with the UN on certain issues, such as counterterrorism and nuclear non-proliferation.
Political Division in the United States: Partisan Conflict and Declining Freedoms
Trump’s Executive Orders of 2025
It is difficult to predict with certainty what specific policies a second Trump administration would pursue. However, based on his past statements and actions, it is likely that he would prioritize issues such as border security, trade protectionism, and deregulation. He could also issue executive orders to reverse policies enacted by the Biden administration on issues such as climate change and immigration.
Trump and the Russia-Ukraine War
Trump’s approach to the Russia-Ukraine war is also uncertain. He has repeatedly praised Russian President Vladimir Putin and has suggested that he could quickly negotiate an end to the conflict. However, he has also expressed support for Ukraine and has provided military assistance.
It is possible that a second Trump administration would seek to pressure Ukraine to make concessions to Russia in order to reach a settlement. This could involve recognizing Russia’s annexation of Crimea and ceding territory in eastern Ukraine. However, such a deal would be controversial and could lead to further instability in the region.
Trump and US-Canada Relations
US-Canada relations have historically been strong, but they were strained during Trump’s first term due to trade disputes and disagreements over issues such as climate change. Trump imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum and criticized Canada’s trade practices. He also clashed with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at international summits.
A second Trump administration could lead to further tensions in US-Canada relations. Trump could reimpose tariffs on Canadian goods and could take a more protectionist approach to trade. He could also pressure Canada to increase its defense spending and to align its foreign policy more closely with the United States.
The Role of Elon Musk
Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla and SpaceX, has become an increasingly influential figure in global affairs. He has used his wealth and influence to promote his vision of the future, which includes space exploration, sustainable energy, and artificial intelligence. Musk has also been involved in various controversies, including his acquisition of Twitter and his высказывания on political issues.
Musk’s role in the UN is limited, but he has expressed support for the organization’s goals and has offered to provide technological assistance. He has also used his platform to raise awareness of global challenges such as climate change and poverty. However, Musk’s views are often controversial, and his involvement in the UN could be met with skepticism by some member states.
Analyzing Trump’s Executive Orders: A Comprehensive Timeline from Inauguration to Today
The UN’s Future: Challenges and Opportunities
The UN is facing a period of unprecedented challenges. The rise of great power competition, the proliferation of conflicts, and the potential return of a Trump administration all pose significant threats to the organization’s effectiveness and relevance. However, the UN also has opportunities to adapt and strengthen its role in the world.
The UN needs to reform its structures and processes to become more efficient and responsive to global challenges. This could involve reforming the Security Council to make it more representative and accountable, strengthening the UN’s peacekeeping operations, and improving its coordination with other international organizations.
The UN also needs to adapt to the changing geopolitical landscape. This could involve engaging with emerging powers such as China and India, strengthening its partnerships with regional organizations, and developing new strategies for addressing conflicts and promoting sustainable development.
Despite the challenges, the UN remains the most important forum for international cooperation. It provides a platform for dialogue and negotiation among nations, and it plays a vital role in addressing global challenges such as climate change, poverty, and disease. The future of the UN depends on the willingness of member states to work together to strengthen the organization and to uphold the principles of the UN Charter.
References:
- With Invasion of Ukraine, Security Council’s 2022 Efforts to Maintain International Peace
- Geopolitics, conflict and diplomacy at Davos 2025.
- Ukraine: Conflict at the Crossroads of Europe and Russia
- Top Geopolitical Risks of 2025
- Seven ways Russia’s war on Ukraine has changed the world
- Munich Security Conference 2025: global challenges on agenda, including Gaza and Ukraine
- The Russia–Ukraine conflict and the changing geopolitical landscape in the Middle East
- Secretary-General Urges Greater Action to Tackle Rampant Conflicts
