Syria after Bashar al-Assad is at a pivotal crossroads following the dramatic fall of the authoritarian regime in December 2024. After more than two decades of repressive rule under Bashar and another three decades under his father Hafez before him, the question of whether the country is heading in the right direction has become increasingly relevant. This momentous transition, while fraught with challenges, presents an unprecedented opportunity for the Syrian people to rebuild their nation on foundations of human rights, inclusivity, and democratic governance. Though obstacles abound – from physical reconstruction to managing complex external influences – there are encouraging signs that Syria is embarking on a trajectory toward recovery and renewal that could finally bring peace and prosperity to a population that has endured unimaginable suffering.
The Fall of Assad: A Turning Point for Syria’s Political Landscape
The collapse of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024, represents a watershed moment in Syria’s history. After more than 50 years of Baath Party rule characterized by repression and human rights abuses, the Syrian government under Bashar al-Assad was finally ousted by armed opposition groups, primarily led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and factions of the Syrian National Army (SNA) who initiated the offensive on November 27, 20241. This dramatic development brought an end to one of the most repressive regimes in the modern Middle East, a regime responsible for countless human rights violations and war crimes.
Under Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year presidency, the Syrian government committed widespread atrocities including systematic arbitrary arrests, torture, enforced disappearances, deaths in detention, use of chemical weapons, starvation as a weapon of war, and indiscriminate attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure1. The regime’s brutality reached its peak during the response to the 2011 uprising, which evolved into a devastating 13-year conflict that tore apart the social fabric of the country.
“The Syrian people have endured more than a decade of brutal repression and conflict,” noted Lama Fakih, Middle East and North Africa director at Human Rights Watch. “This is a critical moment to reject the horror show of the past, rebuild trust, and lay the groundwork for a society where everyone is treated with dignity”1. This sentiment captures the essence of what Syria’s political transition represents: a chance to heal deep wounds and forge a new social contract.
The significance of this turning point cannot be overstated. For a generation of Syrians who have known only Assad rule, the regime’s fall represents liberation from an oppressive system that denied basic rights and freedoms. For those who have lived through the conflict, it offers hope that the cycle of violence might finally be broken. And for the millions of Syrian refugees scattered across the globe, it raises the prospect—however distant—of eventually returning to a homeland free from the dictatorship that drove them to flee.
Syria’s Political Transition: Building an Inclusive Future
Syria’s new government, established in the wake of Assad’s fall, faces the monumental task of uniting a fractured nation and building inclusive institutions after years of authoritarian rule and civil war. Led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa (formerly known as Abu Muhammad al-Jolani) and Prime Minister Muhammad al-Bashir, this transitional government is tasked with managing the immediate post-Assad period and laying groundwork for a more permanent political settlement3.
In a significant development, President Sharaa announced the dissolution of all institutions related to the old regime, including the 2012 constitution, the People’s Assembly, and the Baath Party3. This clean break with the structures of the past signals an intention to build entirely new institutions rather than merely reforming existing ones. Equally significant was the announcement that all revolutionary factions—military, political, and civil—would be dissolved and integrated into new state institutions, including HTS itself3.
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The European Union and the new Syrian government have emphasized that rebuilding Syria must be a “collective and holistic effort, which needs to be inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian-owned”2. This principle of Syrian ownership is essential for ensuring that the transition responds to the actual needs and aspirations of the Syrian people rather than external agendas.
In a joint statement issued after a Syrian conference in Brussels, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, EU Commissioners Dubravka Suica and Hadja Lahbib, and Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shaibani reiterated “the EU’s dedication to supporting Syria’s inclusive transition, aiming to secure lasting peace and prosperity for all Syrians, without any form of discrimination”2. This commitment to inclusivity is crucial in a country with diverse ethnic and religious communities.
A key element of the transition is the promised national dialogue to establish parameters for a new constitution3. Although this dialogue has faced delays due to capacity and logistical issues, its eventual convening will be crucial for defining Syria’s future political system. The process of constitutional development offers an opportunity to enshrine protections for human rights, ensure the separation of powers, and establish mechanisms for accountability.
Perhaps most encouragingly, a report from the Washington Institute indicates that Syria has achieved “relative stability” in the first two months following Assad’s ouster3. From a U.S. policy perspective, this stability is considered a success, though the report notes that “a great deal more must be done”3. This includes developing and implementing the national dialogue, creating a new constitution, and ensuring inclusivity measures.
External Influences: The Role of Regional and Global Powers
Syria’s path to recovery and reconstruction faces significant challenges from external actors who have historically sought to advance their own interests in the country. The interference of foreign powers—namely Israel, Iran, the United States, and Russia—has been a major contributor to Syria’s destruction and continues to complicate its path forward.
Israel has emerged as one of the most aggressive external actors in post-Assad Syria, systematically encroaching on Syrian sovereignty and territory. According to Israeli army radio reports from February 2025, Israel “has quietly established a security zone within Syrian territory, confirming that its presence in Syria is no longer temporary”4. The Israeli army is reportedly “building nine military sites within the security zone,” with plans to “remain in Syria throughout 2025, increasing the number of operating brigades there to three, compared to just one and a half battalions before October 7, 2023”4.
More alarming are Israel’s territorial ambitions. A Hebrew newspaper revealed in January 2025 a plan aimed at expanding Israel’s influence within Syrian territory by a military depth of 15 kilometers and an “intelligence” depth of 60 kilometers4. The newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported that Tel Aviv intends to maintain military control 15 kilometers deep inside Syria, ostensibly to prevent missile launches toward the occupied Golan Heights4.
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Israel’s objectives appear to extend beyond security concerns. According to analysis cited in the search results, Israel has multiple goals in Syria, including “encroaching on Syrian territories, particularly the strategic heights of Mount Hermon, then seizing important water sources and dams, in addition to fertile plains reaching the strategic Yarmouk Valley at the triangle of the Syrian-Palestinian-Jordanian border”4. These ambitions suggest a strategy of territorial expansion under the guise of security measures.
Iran has been a major player in the Syrian conflict since its inception, providing crucial support to the Assad regime and establishing a significant military presence in the country. Even after Assad’s fall, Iran continues to maintain networks of influence through its proxy militias. A senior official from Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba implicitly warned in March 2025 that “Iranian-backed Iraqi militias would resume attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria if US forces do not withdraw from Iraq by the end of 2025”5.
The United States maintains a military presence in Syria, primarily in support of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the northeast. According to the search results, the United States and Iraq agreed in September 2024 that “hundreds of US-led international coalition forces would withdraw from Iraq by September 2025 and that remaining forces would withdraw by the end of 2026”5. However, the Iraqi federal government has reportedly “considered postponing the withdrawal of US forces in recent months due to the security threat it perceives that the fall of the Assad regime in Syria poses to Iraq”5.
Russia was the Assad regime’s most powerful international backer, providing crucial military support that allowed the government to regain control of much of Syria’s territory before its eventual fall. The search results indicate that removal of HTS from UN sanctions lists is “unlikely given that it would require Russian agreement after the group toppled the Kremlin-backed Assad regime”6. Russia’s extensive military intervention in Syria, beginning in 2015, contributed significantly to the country’s destruction with airstrikes targeting not only opposition fighters but also civilian infrastructure.
The interference of these four major powers has contributed significantly to Syria’s destruction and continues to complicate its path toward recovery and renewal. Syria’s new government faces the challenge of asserting national sovereignty while managing complex relationships with these influential external actors.
Economic Challenges and Reconstruction Efforts
Syria’s economy lies in ruins after 13 years of devastating conflict. The country faces monumental challenges in rebuilding its shattered infrastructure, reviving economic activity, and improving the living conditions of its people. However, the post-Assad era offers new opportunities for reconstruction and economic recovery that were impossible under the previous regime.
One of the most significant obstacles to Syria’s economic recovery is the international sanctions regime, particularly U.S. sanctions. While these sanctions were designed to pressure the Assad regime, they now risk impeding legitimate reconstruction efforts. As the Washington Institute report states, “U.S. sanctions policy for Syria is broken, but the answer is neither to pretend existing licenses and waivers are working nor to summarily terminate all Syria sanctions”6.
In recognition of the changed political landscape, the Treasury Department issued General License 24 in early January 2025, expanding authorizations for activities and transactions across Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime6. The deputy secretary of the treasury stated at the time: “The end of Bashar al-Assad’s brutal and repressive rule, backed by Russia and Iran, provides a unique opportunity for Syria and its people to rebuild”6. However, the report indicates that “GL 24 has fallen short of its intended purpose”6.
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The Washington Institute recommends that the U.S. should “quickly take a small number of practical steps to facilitate financial transactions for key sectors such as electricity, food, and rubble removal, and begin to assess and articulate the conditions under which sanctions could be rolled back more broadly”6. These steps are essential for enabling the flow of resources needed for reconstruction.
The joint EU-Syria statement emphasizes that “rebuilding Syria is a collective and holistic effort, which needs to be inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian owned, in which the United Nations have an important role to play alongside other stakeholders”2. This principle of Syrian ownership is crucial for ensuring that reconstruction responds to the actual needs of the Syrian people rather than external agendas.
Beyond physical reconstruction, Syria faces the challenge of economic reform. The Assad regime maintained a corrupt, state-dominated economy that benefited a small elite while impoverishing the majority of Syrians. The new government has an opportunity to implement economic reforms that promote transparency, reduce corruption, and create opportunities for inclusive growth.
Reforms and the Path Forward
The post-Assad era presents Syria with a historic opportunity to implement comprehensive reforms that were unthinkable under the previous regime. These reforms—political, legal, economic, and social—are essential for building a more just, inclusive, and prosperous society. While the challenges are immense, the new government has shown encouraging signs of commitment to meaningful change.
Human Rights Watch has emphasized that Syria’s new leadership “has an unprecedented opportunity to lead by example on human rights, including by protecting basic rights in a new constitution”1. The organization recommends that “the new authorities should ratify and put into practice a host of international legal and human rights instruments and treaties that the Assad government did not”1. These legal reforms would signal a definitive break with the repressive practices of the past.
Justice and accountability must be central to Syria’s reform agenda. The search results mention the need to “work collectively towards discovering the fate of the 150,000 forcibly disappeared Syrians, particularly in Assad’s prisons, whose fates remain unknown”2. Addressing these disappearances is not only a humanitarian imperative but also a necessary step toward national reconciliation.
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Security sector reform represents another critical area. The integration of various armed groups into unified national security forces presents significant challenges but is essential for establishing the state’s monopoly on legitimate force. The reported integration of the SDF into the Syrian state structure—with the SDF forming “an SDF-affiliated army division in Hasakah Province”—suggests progress in this direction5. Successfully managing this integration will be crucial for long-term stability.
The reform process must also address Syria’s international relations. The new government has an opportunity to reorient Syria’s foreign policy away from the alliances with Iran and Russia that characterized the Assad era. Secretary of State Marco Rubio articulated U.S. interest in “a Syria that’s no longer a playground for ISIS [another name for the Islamic State],” that respects minority rights, and prevents Iran and Hezbollah from operating in and through the country6. Aligning with these objectives could help Syria secure international support while maintaining its independence.
Syria’s International Relations: Navigating a Complex Landscape
Syria’s international relations are undergoing a profound transformation in the post-Assad era. After decades of isolation under a regime aligned primarily with Iran and Russia, the new Syrian government has an opportunity to redefine its place in the regional and global order. This recalibration of Syria’s foreign policy holds significant implications for regional dynamics and the country’s prospects for reconstruction and recovery.
The joint statement issued by the EU and Syria following a conference in Brussels indicates a warming of relations with Western powers. The statement emphasized “the full respect of Syria’s unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity” and called for an inclusive reconstruction process that is “Syrian-led and Syrian owned”2. This recognition of Syria’s sovereignty and the principle of Syrian ownership represents a positive development in the country’s international relations.
The EU has reiterated its “dedication to supporting Syria’s inclusive transition, aiming to secure lasting peace and prosperity for all Syrians, without any form of discrimination”2. This support from the European Union could provide valuable diplomatic and financial backing for Syria’s reconstruction efforts.
Relations with the United States remain complex. While the U.S. has taken steps to adjust its sanctions policy following Assad’s fall—including the issuance of General License 24 in January 20256—significant challenges remain. The Washington Institute report argues that the U.S. should clarify its sanctions policy to facilitate legitimate financial transactions for key sectors while maintaining pressure on problematic actors6.
Syria’s most pressing international challenge is Israel’s encroachment on its territory. As discussed earlier, Israel has established a “security zone” within Syrian territory and is building military installations with the intention of maintaining a long-term presence4. The Israeli incursion poses “a significant source of pressure and concern for the new Syrian administration,” particularly as it comes at a time when the new government is preoccupied with organizing domestic affairs4.
Regional dynamics with Arab countries could be shifting in Syria’s favor. While the search results do not provide specific information about current Arab-Syrian relations, the establishment of a legitimate, internationally recognized government in Damascus creates opportunities for normalizing relations with Arab states that had cut ties with the Assad regime.
Syria’s Future Prospects: Cautious Optimism
As Syria emerges from the shadow of Bashar al-Assad’s rule, the country faces both unprecedented challenges and historic opportunities. The path ahead is uncertain, but there are reasons for cautious optimism about Syria’s future prospects if the current trajectory of reform and reconstruction can be maintained and strengthened.
The “relative stability” achieved in the first two months following Assad’s ouster is considered a success from a U.S. policy perspective3. This initial stability provides a foundation upon which more ambitious reforms and reconstruction efforts can be built. However, as the Washington Institute notes, “a great deal more must be done—especially in developing and implementing a national dialogue, a new constitution, and inclusivity measures”3.
The commitment to an inclusive political process offers hope for a more representative and responsive government. The promised national dialogue to establish parameters for a new constitution, though delayed, represents a crucial step toward creating a political system that reflects the diversity of Syrian society3. If implemented effectively, this process could help heal sectarian divisions and foster national unity.
International support for Syria’s reconstruction is beginning to materialize. The EU has reiterated its “dedication to supporting Syria’s inclusive transition, aiming to secure lasting peace and prosperity for all Syrians, without any form of discrimination”2. This support from the European Union could provide valuable diplomatic and financial backing for Syria’s reconstruction efforts.
However, Syria’s future prospects also face serious threats. Israel’s establishment of a “security zone” within Syrian territory represents a violation of sovereignty and a potential source of future conflict4. The continued presence of Iranian-backed militias in Syria also threatens stability. Economic recovery represents perhaps the greatest challenge, with widespread destruction of infrastructure and the collapse of productive sectors.
Despite these challenges, Syria has several advantages in its favor. The end of the Assad dynasty removes the primary obstacle to meaningful reform and international reintegration. The fall of a regime responsible for countless atrocities creates the possibility of a genuine new beginning.
The principle of Syrian ownership emphasized in international statements offers hope that reconstruction will be driven by Syrian priorities rather than external agendas. The joint EU-Syria statement stressed that rebuilding Syria must be a “collective and holistic effort, which needs to be inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian owned”2. If respected, this principle could help Syria avoid the pitfalls of externally imposed solutions.
Perhaps most importantly, the Syrian people themselves represent the country’s greatest asset. Despite years of suffering, Syrians have demonstrated remarkable resilience and determination to build a better future. Their participation in the political, economic, and social reconstruction of their country is essential for sustainable progress.
Syria’s future success will require effective governance, international support, economic reform, and the management of complex regional dynamics. While the challenges are formidable, the post-Assad era offers genuine hope for a Syria that serves the needs and aspirations of its people rather than the interests of a repressive elite or foreign powers. For the first time in generations, Syrians can look toward building a nation where dignity, justice, and prosperity are not merely aspirations but achievable realities.
