In the volatile Middle East, tensions between Turkey and Israel have reached alarming levels, prompting serious concerns about whether a war between these two regional powers is approaching. The deteriorating relationship has been marked by increasingly hostile rhetoric, severed diplomatic ties, and military maneuvers that suggest both nations are preparing for potential confrontation. As Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan openly calls for Israel to be “destroyed and devastated” and Israel conducts strategic airstrikes on Syrian facilities that Turkey had been eyeing for military use, the question of an impending armed conflict in this crucial Middle East region has become increasingly urgent. This comprehensive analysis examines the current state of affairs between these two historically complex Middle Eastern neighbors and assesses whether their long-standing tensions are finally heading toward open warfare.
Historical Context of Turkey-Israel Relations in the Middle East
The relationship between Turkey and Israel has traversed a complex path since Israel’s establishment in 1948, reflecting the broader dynamics of Middle East geopolitics. Turkey was among the first predominantly Muslim nations in the Middle East to recognize the Jewish state, formally extending recognition on March 28, 1949, and establishing a diplomatic mission in Tel Aviv by 19502. This early recognition reflected Turkey’s Western-oriented foreign policy at the time and its strategic alignment with the United States during the Cold War era.
For several decades, the two countries maintained a pragmatic relationship characterized by strategic cooperation, particularly in the military and intelligence spheres. This partnership reached its peak in the 1990s with significant military agreements and joint exercises that alarmed many of Turkey’s Arab neighbors in the Middle East. The relationship was built on shared regional concerns, including mutual wariness of Syria under the Assad regime and Iraq under Saddam Hussein, both significant players in Middle East politics.
However, the trajectory of this relationship began to shift dramatically with the rise to power of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 2002. Erdogan’s more Islamist orientation and his ambition to position Turkey as a leader in the Muslim world gradually led to a recalibration of Turkey’s stance toward Israel. The deterioration accelerated following Israel’s operations in Gaza in 2008-2009, which Erdogan vehemently criticized, marking a significant turning point in Middle East diplomatic relations.
The most significant rupture in Turkey-Israel relations came in 2010 with the Mavi Marmara incident. Israeli commandos raided a Turkish-led flotilla attempting to break Israel’s blockade of Gaza, resulting in the deaths of nine Turkish citizens aboard the Mavi Marmara vessel23. This incident led to a severe diplomatic crisis in the Middle East, with Turkey recalling its ambassador, suspending joint military exercises, and demanding an official apology, compensation for victims’ families, and the lifting of the Gaza blockade.
For years following the incident, relations remained deeply strained, reflecting the broader tensions that have characterized the modern Middle East. A partial reconciliation was only achieved in 2016 after prolonged negotiations, when Israel agreed to pay $20 million in compensation to the families of those killed in the raid2. The two countries subsequently reinstated ambassadors, suggesting a potential thaw in their troubled Middle East relationship. However, this normalization proved short-lived.
With the outbreak of renewed conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in 2023, following Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel, the relationship once again deteriorated sharply, adding another layer of complexity to the already volatile Middle East situation. Turkey took a strongly pro-Palestinian position, with Erdogan vocally condemning Israel’s military response in Gaza. By November 2024, the situation had deteriorated to the point where Turkey formally severed all diplomatic relations with Israel, citing Israel’s reluctance to end the Gaza war1, further fragmenting the diplomatic landscape of the Middle East.
Recent Escalation of Tensions in the Middle East
The current escalation between Turkey and Israel has reached unprecedented levels, even when viewed against the backdrop of their tumultuous history in the Middle East region. Following Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza, Turkey’s condemnation of Israel grew increasingly strident, reflecting broader divisions in Middle East politics. President Erdogan not only criticized Israel’s military actions but openly supported Hamas, further inflaming tensions in an already volatile Middle East1.
The breaking point came on November 13, 2024, when Erdogan announced Turkey was severing all diplomatic relations with Israel due to Israel’s continued operations in Gaza1. This marked a complete diplomatic rupture between the two countries that had once been strategic partners in the Middle East region.
The rhetoric from Turkey, particularly from President Erdogan, has grown increasingly hostile and alarming in recent months, transforming the nature of Middle East discourse. On March 30, 2025, Erdogan crossed a significant threshold when he publicly prayed, “May Allah make Zionist Israel destroyed and devastated”5. This call for Israel’s destruction represented an escalation from criticism of Israeli policies to questioning the very legitimacy and right to existence of the Jewish state, introducing a dangerous new element into Middle East relations.
A timeline of recent hostile Turkish statements and actions compiled by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) illustrates the accelerating pattern of antagonism reshaping Middle East diplomacy. In addition to Erdogan’s call for Israel’s destruction, this timeline documents statements by Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warning that Turkey “will not sit and watch” Israel’s actions in Syria, Turkey’s refusal to allow Israel’s President to use its airspace while flying to Azerbaijan, and calls from Erdogan for Islamic countries to impose an arms embargo on Israel5, all actions that have significant implications for regional stability in the Middle East.
Turkey has also demonstrated its military readiness through large-scale exercises that have altered the security landscape of the Middle East. Between May 7 and 18 (of the previous year), Turkey conducted an extensive naval exercise called Seawolf-II in the eastern Mediterranean, involving nearly 15,000 military personnel4. President Erdogan used this occasion to emphasize Turkey’s commitment to strengthening its defense capabilities “despite occasionally facing covert or overt embargoes imposed by some allies”4, signaling Turkey’s determination to assert itself as a dominant military power in the Middle East.
These military demonstrations coincide with Turkey’s suspension of all trade with Israel and its efforts to participate in a case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, accusing Israel of genocide against Palestinians-charges that Israel vehemently denies8. These developments have fundamentally altered the economic and legal dimensions of Turkey-Israel relations in the broader context of Middle East politics.
The Syrian Flashpoint in the Middle East
While Gaza has been a persistent source of tension between Turkey and Israel, Syria has emerged as the most dangerous potential flashpoint for direct confrontation between these two military powers in the Middle East. The situation in Syria has been dramatically transformed following the reported overthrow of the Assad regime by Islamic rebels in December 2024, an event that has reshuffled regional dynamics and created new security challenges throughout the Middle East7.
Turkey appears to have played a significant role in supporting the rebels who toppled Assad, dramatically altering the power balance in the Middle East. U.S. President Trump reportedly congratulated Erdogan on “doing what nobody has done in 2,000 years, taking over Syria,” referring to the successful overthrow of the Assad regime by Islamic rebels, whom Trump characterized as a Turkish proxy7. The new government in Damascus, led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, is described as a close ally of Turkey8, establishing a new political reality in the Middle East that has significant implications for regional security.
This development has created acute security concerns for Israel, which previously had a relatively predictable adversarial relationship with Assad’s Syria in the context of traditional Middle East power dynamics. Israel fears that a government in Damascus aligned with Turkey and potentially influenced by Islamist ideology could pose new threats to its security within the volatile Middle East region. More immediately, Israel is concerned that Turkey’s expanding military presence in Syria could hamper the Israeli Air Force’s freedom of action in the region, where it has regularly conducted strikes against targets it considers threats to its security7, introducing a new dimension to the military balance in the Middle East.
These concerns appear to have prompted preemptive action by Israel, changing the tactical landscape of the Middle East conflict. According to reports, Turkey had been assessing at least three airbases in Syria where it could deploy forces as part of a planned joint defense pact with the new Syrian government. Israel reportedly struck these sites with airstrikes, including a “heavy barrage” on one night, despite Turkey’s efforts to reassure Washington that its deeper military presence in Syria was not intended to threaten Israel9, demonstrating the high stakes involved in this Middle East confrontation.
The Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has stated that Turkey wants no confrontation with Israel in Syria, while acknowledging that Israeli strikes have undermined the new Syrian government’s ability to deter threats8. However, Turkey has characterized the Israeli strikes as an encroachment on Syrian territory, while Israel has maintained that it would not allow any hostile forces in Syria8, illustrating the irreconcilable positions that define this Middle East standoff.
This situation creates a dangerous scenario where both countries have significant security interests in Syria, but increasingly conflicting visions for the country’s future within the broader Middle East. Analysts warn that Turkey and Israel are on a dangerous trajectory in Syria, where their competing strategic interests and expanding military operations create a real risk of direct conflict, even if neither country explicitly seeks war6, threatening to destabilize the entire Middle East region.
Economic and Strategic Dimensions in the Middle East
The deteriorating relationship between Turkey and Israel extends beyond diplomatic and military dimensions to encompass significant economic and strategic considerations that impact the entire Middle East region. The two countries once maintained substantial trade relations, with bilateral trade valued at billions of dollars annually. However, according to reports, Turkey has suspended all trade with Israel in response to the Gaza conflict8, representing a significant economic rupture that has implications for commercial networks throughout the Middle East.
Beyond bilateral economic ties, the tensions between Turkey and Israel have broader regional implications for the Middle East, particularly regarding energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean. Both countries have significant interests in the region’s natural gas fields, with Israel developing its offshore resources and forming energy partnerships with countries like Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt-nations with which Turkey has its own complex and often tense relationships. These competing energy interests have become a crucial aspect of Middle East geopolitics, with the potential to either foster cooperation or fuel conflict.
The Eastern Mediterranean has become a zone of competing maritime claims and energy interests in the Middle East, with Turkey pursuing an assertive policy that has sometimes put it at odds with regional neighbors. Turkey’s large-scale naval exercises in the region, such as the Seawolf-II exercise involving 15,000 military personnel4, can be seen in this context as demonstrations of Turkey’s determination to protect what it considers its rights and interests in these waters, asserting its position as a dominant power in the Middle East maritime domain.
Strategically, both Turkey and Israel possess significant military capabilities that shape the security architecture of the Middle East. Turkey maintains the second-largest standing military in NATO and has invested heavily in its defense industry, including the development of indigenous weapons systems. Israel, while smaller in population and territory, possesses one of the most advanced military and intelligence capabilities in the world, with a particular emphasis on air power and technological superiority. The balance of these military capabilities is a crucial factor in Middle East security dynamics.
A direct military confrontation between these two powers would have severe consequences not only for the countries involved but for regional stability across the Middle East as a whole. It would likely draw in other regional and global actors, potentially expanding into a wider conflict with unpredictable outcomes that could reshape the Middle East for generations to come.
International Response and Mediation Efforts in the Middle East
The growing tensions between Turkey and Israel have prompted responses from international actors concerned about stability in the Middle East, most notably the United States. According to reports, U.S. President Donald Trump has offered to mediate between the two countries, stating that he has “a great relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan” and that he can help resolve “any problem that you have with Turkey… as long as you are reasonable”7, positioning the U.S. as a potential broker in this Middle East crisis.
Trump’s comments suggest that the U.S. is concerned about the potential for conflict between two countries that have historically been American allies in the Middle East, albeit with varying degrees of complexity in those relationships in recent years. However, his remarks also indicate that he views Turkey’s actions in Syria favorably, reportedly congratulating Erdogan on “taking over Syria” through proxy forces that overthrew the Assad regime7. This position could complicate U.S. efforts to mediate, as it appears to endorse Turkey’s expanding influence in Syria, which is precisely what concerns Israel and threatens to destabilize the Middle East further.
The potential for wider regional involvement in any Turkey-Israel confrontation is significant, with implications for the entire Middle East. Iran, which has its own complex relationships with both Turkey and Israel, would likely seek to exploit any conflict between them to advance its regional interests in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and other Gulf states would also be compelled to respond to a major regional crisis involving two significant military powers, potentially reshaping alliances throughout the Middle East.
NATO, of which Turkey is a member, faces a particularly difficult position in this Middle East crisis. A direct conflict involving a NATO member state could test the alliance’s cohesion and purpose. While NATO has no obligation to support Turkey in an offensive action or in conflicts it initiates outside NATO territory, the alliance would nonetheless face pressure to adopt a stance on any significant military confrontation involving one of its members, adding another layer of complexity to the international dimensions of this Middle East tension.
The United Nations and other international organizations have also likely been engaged in diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions in the Middle East, though specific details of such initiatives are not fully detailed in the available search results. The International Court of Justice case regarding Gaza, in which Turkey has sought to participate8, represents one forum where the legal and humanitarian dimensions of regional tensions are being addressed, though not the specific Turkey-Israel bilateral tensions that threaten Middle East stability.
Analysis: Likelihood of War in the Middle East
Assessing whether Turkey and Israel are approaching war requires careful consideration of factors that both increase and decrease the probability of armed conflict in the Middle East. There are several factors that suggest an elevated risk of military confrontation that could destabilize the entire Middle East region.
First, the rhetoric from Turkish leadership, particularly President Erdogan’s explicit call for Israel to be “destroyed and devastated”5, represents an extreme position that leaves little room for diplomatic reconciliation within traditional Middle East peace frameworks. Such statements, especially when coming from a head of state, can create momentum toward conflict and make de-escalation more difficult politically, altering the diplomatic climate of the Middle East in dangerous ways.
Second, the concrete actions taken by both sides-Turkey’s severing of diplomatic relations and suspension of trade, Israel’s strikes on Syrian airbases that Turkey had been assessing for potential use-indicate that the tensions are not merely rhetorical but are manifesting in substantive policy decisions that increase friction points throughout the Middle East. These actions represent a significant escalation beyond the usual diplomatic tensions that characterize Middle East relations.
Third, the situation in Syria creates a particularly dangerous scenario in the heart of the Middle East where both countries have military forces operating in proximity, increasing the risk of incidents that could trigger escalation. With Turkey supporting the new government in Damascus and Israel conducting strikes to protect what it sees as its security interests, the potential for direct or indirect clashes is significant9, threatening to ignite a broader Middle East conflict.
Fourth, the broader regional context of the Middle East, including the aftermath of the Gaza conflict and the overthrow of the Assad regime, has created a fluid and unpredictable environment where miscalculations are more likely. The alignment of Turkey with more Islamist forces in the region, including its apparent support for Hamas1, creates ideological as well as strategic divisions with Israel that could further inflame Middle East tensions.
However, there are also several factors that militate against the outbreak of full-scale war in the Middle East.
First, despite the heated rhetoric, Turkish officials have explicitly stated that they do not seek confrontation with Israel in Syria. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s statement that “Turkey wants no confrontation with Israel in Syria”8 suggests that while Turkey may be willing to support the new Syrian government and expand its influence there, it is wary of direct military engagement with Israel that could destabilize the Middle East further.
Second, the economic and human costs of war would be enormous for both countries and the broader Middle East, creating strong practical incentives for restraint. Turkey is already facing economic challenges, and a war with Israel would exacerbate these problems significantly. For Israel, opening another front beyond Gaza and Lebanon would stretch its military resources and increase domestic vulnerabilities, considerations that are likely to influence decision-making in both capitals.
Third, international pressure, particularly from the United States, which maintains relationships with both countries, could help prevent escalation to open warfare that would devastate the Middle East. President Trump’s offer to mediate7, while not guaranteed to succeed, represents one potential avenue for de-escalation in this volatile region.
Fourth, both Turkey and Israel have extensive experience with strategic calculation and have historically been careful about engaging in direct military confrontations with militarily powerful adversaries in the Middle East. Even at times of high tension, both countries have typically sought to avoid scenarios that could lead to uncontrolled escalation that would threaten their national interests and regional stability.
Conclusion: The Future of Turkey-Israel Relations in the Middle East
The question posed in the title-Is the war between Turkey and Israel approaching in the Middle East?-cannot be answered with certainty, but the evidence suggests that while the risk of conflict is elevated, full-scale war remains unlikely in the immediate term. Instead, what appears more probable is a continuation and potential intensification of the current pattern: heightened rhetoric, proxy confrontations in Syria, and strategic competition throughout the Middle East, punctuated by occasional crises that risk but ultimately avoid direct military engagement.
Several potential scenarios for the future of Turkey-Israel relations in the Middle East can be envisioned:
Scenario 1: Managed Hostility – In this scenario, the current level of tension persists but remains contained within the broader context of Middle East politics. Turkey and Israel maintain their opposing positions and continue to compete for influence in Syria and elsewhere in the region, but both carefully avoid crossing red lines that would trigger direct military confrontation. International actors, particularly the United States, play active roles in crisis management and de-escalation when necessary, preventing a full-scale Middle East war.
Scenario 2: Gradual De-escalation – This more optimistic scenario would involve a walking back of the current tensions, perhaps facilitated by U.S. mediation or changes in domestic political considerations in either or both countries. Economic pragmatism could eventually overcome ideological antagonism, leading to a cautious resumption of trade and perhaps even diplomatic relations over time, contributing to greater stability in the Middle East.
Scenario 3: Limited Military Conflict – In this more concerning scenario, an incident in Syria or elsewhere in the Middle East-perhaps an Israeli strike that causes Turkish casualties, or a direct confrontation between the forces of the two countries-triggers a limited military exchange. This would likely be brief and contained to specific areas, with both sides seeking to demonstrate resolve while avoiding full-scale war that would devastate the Middle East.
Scenario 4: Regional War – The most dangerous but least likely scenario would involve a major military confrontation between Turkey and Israel that draws in other regional powers and potentially global actors, threatening to engulf the entire Middle East. This could be triggered by a significant escalation in Syria, a major terrorist attack attributed to proxies of either side, or a series of miscalculations that create an escalatory spiral beyond the control of political leadership.
In conclusion, while Turkey and Israel are experiencing their most serious crisis in relations to date, with unprecedented levels of hostile rhetoric and competing interests in Syria creating dangerous friction points in the Middle East, a full-scale war between these two regional powers remains improbable in the near term. However, the risk of limited military incidents, particularly in Syria, is significant and growing. The role of international actors, especially the United States, in managing these tensions will be crucial in determining whether the current trajectory leads to further escalation or eventual de-escalation in this volatile region of the Middle East.
The Middle East stands at a critical juncture, with the potential Turkey-Israel confrontation representing just one of several volatile situations that could reshape regional dynamics. How this specific relationship evolves will have profound implications not only for the two countries involved but for stability and power dynamics across the broader Middle East, influencing everything from energy security to religious politics throughout this strategically vital region.
