As tensions rise in the Pacific region and the strategic competition between the United States and China intensifies, a critical question emerges: what is the future of American support for Taiwan? By early 2025, US-Taiwan relations have seen rapid developments amid growing concerns over the possibility of military conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Recent reports from esteemed American research centers suggest a “moderate” probability of military conflict involving Taiwan in 2025, placing US policymakers in a position where they must balance support for Taiwan with the need to maintain regional stability in Asia.
The Strategic Importance of Taiwan in US Foreign Policy
Taiwan plays a central role in the United States’ Pacific strategy, serving not only as a military asset but also as a key geopolitical player. Its location within the “First Island Chain” makes it a crucial defensive line against China’s expanding influence in the region. This strategic position also allows the US to monitor vital maritime corridors in the South China Sea, through which trillions of dollars in global trade pass each year.
Economically, Taiwan is indispensable, particularly in the semiconductor sector. Taiwanese company TSMC controls more than 50% of the global advanced chip manufacturing market. This technological dominance spans everything from smartphones to military systems, making Taiwan a crucial player in global supply chains and US national security. US policymakers understand that if China gains control of this sector, it could grant Beijing immense leverage in the global economy and future technologies.
Politically, Taiwan represents a beacon of democracy in a region where political freedoms are declining. Its success as a democratic society serves as an inspiration and supports the US vision of a world order based on liberal values. This becomes even more significant in the context of ideological competition with China, which promotes the idea that economic growth can occur without adopting democratic principles.
For all these reasons, successive US administrations have supported Taiwan, though the form and extent of this support have varied. Since the passage of the Taiwan Relations Act in 1979, the US has committed to providing defensive weapons to Taiwan while maintaining “strategic ambiguity” regarding potential military intervention in the event of a Chinese attack.
Developments in US-Taiwan Relations in Recent Months
Recent months have seen a surge in US diplomatic and military activity concerning Taiwan. In December 2024, the White House announced that President Joe Biden had approved an additional $571 million in military aid for Taiwan, empowering Secretary of State Antony Blinken to use these funds for defensive materials, services, and military training programs. The Pentagon also approved a potential $265 million deal for the sale of command, control, and communications systems to Taiwan.
This military aid came at a particularly sensitive moment, as Taiwan had declared a state of alert in response to what it described as the largest mobilization of Chinese naval forces in three decades. This development reflected rising fears of a potential Chinese military escalation in the region.
Diplomatically, October 2024 saw an important visit by Ingrid Larson, Director of the American Institute in Taiwan’s Washington Office, to Taipei. The American Institute serves as the de facto diplomatic representative of the US in Taiwan in the absence of formal diplomatic relations. The visit was framed as part of Washington’s strong commitment to Taiwan and strengthening the partnership between the two nations. Such high-level visits mark an escalation in US-Taiwan diplomatic relations, a development that Beijing views with alarm and resentment.
Perhaps most concerning was the report from the Council on Foreign Relations in January 2025, which indicated a “moderate” probability of military conflict in Taiwan during 2025. This report, titled “Preventive Priorities Survey 2025,” based on the opinions of 680 foreign policy experts surveyed in November 2024, warned that Beijing’s aggressive stance could trigger a major crisis in the Taiwan Strait, potentially involving the US and other regional countries. The report emphasized that such a scenario could unfold unexpectedly.
Challenges to Continued US Support Amid Increasing Chinese Pressure
US support for Taiwan faces numerous challenges, most notably the ongoing military, diplomatic, and economic pressures from China. Beijing views Taiwan as an integral part of its territory and rejects any foreign interference, considering it a purely domestic issue. This stance complicates Washington’s position, as it seeks to support Taiwan while avoiding direct confrontation with China.
In recent years, China has ramped up its military activities around Taiwan, including repeated incursions by Chinese warplanes into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone and large-scale military exercises near the island. This military escalation has heightened pressure on the US to clarify its commitments to defending Taiwan.
Diplomatically, China continues its efforts to isolate Taiwan on the global stage, pressuring countries with diplomatic ties to sever relations with Taipei. This strategy has been effective, reducing the number of countries that officially recognize Taiwan to fewer than 15. In contrast, the US has worked to bolster Taiwan’s international standing by supporting its participation in international organizations like the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum (APEC).
Economically, Taiwan is a key trading partner for the US, especially in the semiconductor industry. However, Washington faces growing challenges as it seeks to bring some of the chip manufacturing back to the US through the CHIPS and Science Act. At the same time, Taiwan is heavily dependent on China as its largest trading partner, creating a complex economic relationship that Beijing can leverage as a pressure point.
Impact of US-China Tensions on the Future of Support for Taiwan
Tensions between the US and China are a pivotal factor in determining the future of US support for Taiwan. The strategic rivalry between the two powers extends beyond Taiwan, encompassing trade, technology, regional influence, and political values. However, Taiwan remains one of the most sensitive points of contention.
Some analysts believe that a potential return of former President Donald Trump to the White House could further complicate the situation. Trump’s first term saw a hardline stance toward China, including the imposition of tariffs and tough rhetoric. However, his occasionally contradictory statements about Taiwan raised concerns in both Taipei and Washington regarding his commitment to defending the island.
In October 2024, Taiwanese officials worked to downplay critical remarks made by Trump about Taiwan’s semiconductor industry and defense needs. This growing concern in Taipei highlights the uncertainty regarding US policy toward Taiwan, especially with potential shifts in presidential administrations.
The central question remains: will the US-China rivalry lead to a strengthening of US support for Taiwan as a strategic ally against China, or will fears of escalation with Beijing push Washington toward a more cautious approach? The answer depends on several factors, including the direction of the next US administration, the evolution of China’s position, and other international crises, such as the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Impact of Other International Crises on Taiwan’s Priority in US Foreign Policy
The US faces numerous geopolitical challenges globally, forcing it to prioritize foreign policy and military resources. In this context, questions arise about how other international crises, particularly the war in Ukraine, might impact the US’s ability and willingness to support Taiwan.
The war in Ukraine has drained significant American and European resources, with the US providing hundreds of billions of dollars in military and economic aid to Kyiv. This strain on resources raises concerns about Washington’s ability to meet its commitments to other allies, including Taiwan, especially considering domestic economic challenges and rising public debt.
Lessons from the Ukraine conflict could influence US strategy toward Taiwan. On one hand, the situation has highlighted the importance of preemptive military support, which might encourage Washington to increase aid to Taiwan. On the other hand, the risks of escalating a conflict with a major nuclear power may lead American decision-makers to adopt a more cautious approach.
Additionally, domestic opposition, particularly from the conservative wing of the Republican Party, has grown regarding US foreign aid. The heated debates in Congress over aid packages for Ukraine reflect the growing “America First” sentiment, which could affect Washington’s future commitments to Taiwan.
The Chinese Position and Risks of Military Escalation
China has adopted a multifaceted approach toward Taiwan, combining military, diplomatic, and economic pressures, while maintaining ambiguity about when it might resort to military force. President Xi Jinping has repeatedly stated that reunification with Taiwan is a “non-negotiable” goal, and he has not ruled out the use of force to achieve it.
China’s military activities around Taiwan have escalated in recent years, with Taiwan describing the Chinese military build-up in December 2024 as the largest in three decades. This escalation is part of a broader strategy aimed at exhausting Taiwan’s defenses, testing its military capabilities, normalizing Chinese military presence near the island, and sending a clear message to the US and its allies.
The January 2025 Council on Foreign Relations report warned that China’s increasing pressure on Taiwan could lead to a serious crisis involving the US and other regional powers, highlighting the risks of sudden escalation.
In response, Taiwan has sought to enhance its defensive capabilities, increasing its military budget and adopting a “hedgehog” strategy to make any potential Chinese invasion prohibitively costly. However, the stark disparity in military capabilities between China and Taiwan means that Taiwan remains heavily reliant on US support to deter aggression.
The Economic and Technological Dimension in the US Support Equation
The economic and technological factors play a crucial role in the US support for Taiwan. Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, dominated by TSMC, is central to global supply chains, particularly in fields like artificial intelligence, advanced computing, and military technology. China’s control of this industry would grant it immense leverage over the global economy and in its competition with the US in technological domains.
Thus, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry forms a “silicon shield” for its security, reinforcing Washington’s commitment to the island. At the same time, China uses its economic relationship with Taiwan as a tool of pressure, with trade between the two exceeding $200 billion annually. This mutual economic dependence gives Beijing significant leverage.
This tension between economic interests and security priorities highlights the complex dynamics of US policy toward Taiwan. Washington is keen to strengthen its economic ties with Taiwan while managing the risks of escalating geopolitical tensions.
Scenarios for the Future of US Support for Taiwan
Given the complexities surrounding US-Taiwan relations, three possible scenarios can emerge for the future of US support:
- First Scenario: Continuation and Expansion of US Support
In this scenario, the US continues to strongly support Taiwan, with increased military aid and deeper economic and technological collaboration. This policy is rooted in the belief that Taiwan is a crucial element in containing China’s influence. The continuation of advanced weapons sales and joint military exercises would be key indicators of this approach.
- Second Scenario: Gradual Decline in US Support
This scenario sees a gradual reduction in US support for Taiwan, driven by internal economic pressures, the desire to avoid confrontation with China, and other international crises. While the US would maintain some level of commitment to Taiwan’s security, it would refrain from provocative actions, such as escalating arms sales or guaranteeing military intervention.
- Third Scenario: Redefining the Security Relationship
In this scenario, the US transitions from an “external support” model to a “strategic partnership” model. This shift would involve empowering Taiwan to build stronger self-defense capabilities, potentially with the support of regional allies like Japan and Australia.
Regional and Global Implications of Continuing or Declining US Support for Taiwan
Any change in US support for Taiwan would have far-reaching consequences beyond the US-Taiwan relationship. Continued strong support would reinforce US security commitments in the Pacific, particularly with allies like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. Conversely, a decline in support could embolden China and reshape the regional balance of power.
Globally, the future of US support for Taiwan will significantly impact US-China relations and the broader international system in the 21st century.
Conclusion: The Future of US Support for Taiwan Between Strategic Necessity and Increasing Challenges
US support for Taiwan faces significant challenges: escalating Chinese pressure, the risk of military conflict, preoccupation with other crises, and potential changes in US foreign policy. Nevertheless, Taiwan’s strategic importance and the necessity of containing China make it a key priority. Despite these challenges, current indicators suggest that US support for Taiwan will continue, albeit with adjustments in the form and nature of that support.
Ultimately, the future of US support will depend on Washington’s ability to balance the risks of escalation with China against the strategic necessity of maintaining commitments to a key ally in the Pacific.
References:
The Enduring—If Troubled—Genius of the Taiwan Relations Act, 45 Years On
U.S. Officials Need to Explain the Stakes in Taiwan
Should the United States change its policies toward Taiwan?
To secure Taiwan, the United States must first secure Ukraine
Will the United States come to Taiwan’s defense? Analysis of public opinion in Taiwan and the United States
